He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. TIP: But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Not a bad streak. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Thank you for supporting our journalism. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Contributors wanted Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Until this year. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Arapahoe County. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. The highest percentage being 66.1%. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Twitter Twitter The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? 5. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Election night is going to be information overload. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. List of election bellwether counties in the United States 4. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Really stop reading. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Their concerns are real. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Watch Hampton City. 2016 Election (1135) Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president 10. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Hillary Clinton (578) Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. 7. Subscribe to breaking updates What science tells us about the afterlife. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation.
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